In a potential 2024 election rematch, a recent Fox News poll shows that President Joe Biden’s support is between 45 percent and 49 percent against each Republican running for the White House, including a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump. However, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has a 2-point edge over Biden, according to the same poll.[0]
Biden’s approval ratings in the state of Florida are not particularly favorable, as 54% of voters disapprove of the way he has handled the presidency, while 42% approve. These numbers are consistent with his average approval ratings among all adults nationally.[1] It is worth noting that the majority of Democratic registered voters in Florida approve of Biden’s work (89%), but a majority of independents (58%) and nearly all Republicans (97%) disapprove.[1]
Interestingly, among voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, Trump leads Biden by a two-to-one margin. Additionally, nearly two-thirds of voters do not want Biden to be president again.[2] On the other hand, six in 10 voters feel the same way about Trump.[3]
Many of those who support Biden in a potential rematch in 2024 say their choice would be motivated largely by opposition to Trump. About 55% of Biden supporters say their vote would be more against Trump, while 44% say it would be more in support of Biden. In contrast, 63% of Trump supporters say they would vote for him mostly as a show of support.[1]
It is interesting to note that Wisconsin, a swing state that Biden won by a narrow margin in 2020, seems to be following a similar trajectory for the 2024 election.[4] Independent voters in Wisconsin are nearly split, with 33% supporting Biden and 31% supporting Trump, while 36% are undecided or plan on voting for someone else.
These numbers in Wisconsin are reflective of another swing state, Pennsylvania, where a majority of voters believe that Trump won fair and square in 2016, and a majority also believe that Biden won fair and square in 2020. These opinions fall along partisan lines, with 35% of Democrats thinking Trump won fair and square in 2016 and 35% of Democrats thinking he stole the election. Similarly, 68% of Republicans think Biden stole the 2020 election, while 20% think he won fair and square.[5]
In a recent Emerson College Polling survey in Wisconsin, Trump and Biden are neck and neck in a potential 2024 matchup, with 42% supporting Trump and 40% supporting Biden. Eleven percent of respondents support someone else, and 8% are undecided.[6]
National polls also point to a likely rematch between Trump and Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Despite facing legal troubles, including 91 felony criminal counts and a civil court finding him liable for business fraud, Trump continues to hold a massive polling lead over his GOP primary rivals.
Biden’s path to victory in the electoral college appears more straightforward, with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada being key states for him.[7] However, Georgia and Arizona may present challenges, although they are plausible backup options.[7] The fact that Trump will go on televised trial in Georgia could be seen as a positive for Biden.[7]
When third-party candidates are factored into the mix, Biden and Trump remain competitive among voters nationally, with Biden at 40% and Trump at 39%. A small percentage of voters would support a Libertarian or Green Party candidate, while 12% would support another independent or third-party candidate.[8]
Due to the considerable number of voters who hold a negative view of both Biden and Trump, there has been considerable enthusiasm surrounding the possibility of a third-party candidate.[8] However, even with third-party candidates in the race, a Biden-Trump matchup would remain competitive.[9]
In terms of approval ratings, Biden’s highest approval rating during his presidency was 55%, while his lowest was 38%. As of September, his approval rating ranged from 41% to 42%.
Trump, on the other hand, remains the most popular GOP primary candidate, with 74% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents viewing him favorably. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the only other candidate who is viewed favorably by a majority of Republicans, but he trails behind Trump with 58% support.[10]
In the 2024 Republican primary, Trump continues to lead by a significant margin, with 59% support among Republican primary voters. DeSantis is a distant second with 13% support, followed by Nikki Haley with 10% support.[11]
Interestingly, about half of both Trump and Biden supporters say there is nothing their candidate could say or do that would change their support. However, a small percentage of Trump supporters (24%) and Biden supporters (23%) say there is something their candidate could do that would make them change their minds.
Overall, the 2024 election looks to be a competitive race between Trump and Biden, with both candidates having a solid base of support. While Trump remains popular among Republicans, Biden’s approval ratings have fluctuated but have remained relatively steady. The outcome of the election will likely be determined by swing states and independent voters.
0. “Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley” Yahoo News, 12 Oct. 2023, https://news.yahoo.com/biden-edges-trump-fox-news-125010208.html
1. “CNN Poll: Biden and Trump are in a dead heat in potential Nevada rematch” CNN, 10 Oct. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/politics/cnn-poll-nevada/index.html
2. “New poll places Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania” The Independent, 12 Oct. 2023, https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/poll-trump-biden-pennsylvania-2024-b2428738.html
3. “Marist Poll shows Biden and Trump evenly matched in head-to-head contest” Mid Hudson News Website, 5 Oct. 2023, https://midhudsonnews.com/2023/10/05/marist-poll-shows-biden-and-trump-evenly-matched-in-head-to-head-contest/
4. “Wisconsin 2024 Poll: Trump and Biden on Track for Another Close Election” Emerson Polling, 12 Oct. 2023, https://emersoncollegepolling.com/wisconsin-2024-poll-trump-and-biden-on-track-for-another-close-election
5. “LISTEN: UMW statewide survey considers 2024 Biden, Trump presidential rematch” Fredericksburg Today, 7 Oct. 2023, https://fredericksburg.today/2023/10/07/listen-umw-statewide-survey-considers-2024-biden-trump-presidential-rematch/
6. “Trump tops Biden in battleground Pennsylvania after losing there in 2020: Poll” Washington Examiner, 11 Oct. 2023, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-biden-battleground-pennsylvania-losing-2020-poll
7. “US Presidential Election Betting Update: Biden’s chance remains underestimated” Betting.betfair, 12 Oct. 2023, https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-betting-odds-and-analysis-121023-171.html
8. “Trump and Biden are neck and neck in latest poll” KRLD, 4 Oct. 2023, https://www.audacy.com/krld/news/national/trump-and-biden-are-neck-and-neck-in-latest-poll
9. “Americans aren’t thrilled with Biden or Trump but a third party isn’t resonating” NPR, 4 Oct. 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/10/04/1203296799/trump-voters-more-excited-than-biden-2024-election
10. “Trump retains narrow lead over Biden nationally for third consecutive week” Florida’s Voice, 6 Oct. 2023, https://flvoicenews.com/trump-retains-narrow-lead-over-biden-nationally-for-third-consecutive-week/
11. “Biden leads Trump in 2024 popular vote — trails Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis: poll” New York Post , 12 Oct. 2023, https://nypost.com/2023/10/12/donald-trump-trails-joe-biden-while-nikki-haley-and-ron-desantis-best-him-poll
