As the 2024 presidential race heats up, a recent Emerson College Polling survey of Iowa voters found President Joe Biden with a 35% job approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating.[0] However, among Democratic caucus voters, he holds a 76% approval rating.[1] Among all Americans, Biden receives a negative 36-58% job approval rating.[0] In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and former President Donald Trump, about 45% of voters say they definitely wouldn’t vote for either, with about 3 in 10 saying they would definitely support either candidate.
Looking at potential support for the incumbent against both Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, just under one-third (31-32%) will definitely vote for Biden, and 12-13% will probably back him. Against former Vice President Mike Pence, though, just 27% will definitely commit to Biden and 15% will probably support him. Similarly, on the Republican side of the ballot, Trump has similar negatives to Biden in a matchup between the two, with 46% saying they will definitely not and 8% saying they will probably not vote for the former president. However, Trump’s positive support is slightly lower than Biden’s, with 29% saying they will definitely and 12% saying they will probably vote for him.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Trump has a clear lead with 53% choosing him as their first choice in the primary, with DeSantis in second place at 26%.[2] However, DeSantis is considered a leading alternative to Trump and is seen as one of the few in the Republican Party who can give the former president a real challenge in the race for the 2024 nomination. If the Texas Republican presidential primary were limited to Trump and DeSantis, 57% of GOP primary voters in Texas would choose Trump, while 36% would choose DeSantis. There are 5% undecided, and 2% of people said they would not vote if Trump and DeSantis were their only choices.[3]
Pence could also be a wild card in the race since voters have less definite commitments either against (36%) or for (18%) him than they do for either Biden or the other two Republicans tested as candidates in the poll. However, Biden has lower definite support in the Pence nomination scenario than he does against either Trump or DeSantis.
Overall, the field of Republican presidential contenders for the 2024 primary race is developing, with Trump remaining at the top of the list of declared or potential candidates with 56% support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters.[0] DeSantis is considered a front-runner and leading alternative to Trump, with support from 25% of voters. Other potential candidates include Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie, among others, with only 6% choosing Pence as their first choice in the primary.
0. “Q Poll: Biden-Trump Dead Heat National Survey – Only In Bridgeport®” Only In Bridgeport, 25 May. 2023, http://onlyinbridgeport.com/wordpress/q-poll-biden-trump-dead-heat-national-survey/
1. “Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Start with Significant Leads in Party Caucuses” Emerson Polling, 25 May. 2023, https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2024-biden-and-trump-start-with-significant-leads-in-party-caucuses/
2. “CNN Poll: Trump leads 2024 GOP primary field, but many voters are open to supporting other candidates” CNN, 24 May. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-primary-field/index.html
3. “TxHPF survey shows Trump has early lead on DeSantis among Texas Republicans” Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, 24 May. 2023, https://www.txhpf.org/2023/05/24/txhpf-survey-shows-trump-has-early-lead-on-desantis-among-texas-republicans
