In the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, the landscape is shifting. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is gaining ground and emerging as a serious contender, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was once considered a frontrunner, is seeing a decline in support. This shift is evident in recent polls conducted in key states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
In Iowa, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll shows that Haley is now tied with DeSantis for second place, both garnering 16% support among likely Republican caucusgoers. This is a significant increase for Haley, who has seen her support rise by 10 points since August. In contrast, DeSantis has experienced a decline of 3 points during the same period.[0] These numbers suggest that Haley is gaining momentum and may be surpassing DeSantis in popularity among Republican voters.
Furthermore, other polls are also indicating Haley’s rise in popularity.[1] A national poll conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University found that Haley is now garnering 11% support among likely Republican voters, just 1 percentage point behind DeSantis at 12.3%.[2] This marks a significant increase for Haley, who had a standing of 4.49% in the same poll conducted in June. On the other hand, DeSantis has seen a decline in support, dropping from 22.86% in June to his current standing.[3]
What is driving Haley’s surge in popularity?[0] One factor could be her positioning as a “moderate” politician within the Republican Party. Her savvy debate performances and even-tempered messaging have appealed to Republican voters who may be looking for an alternative to the more polarizing figures like Trump or DeSantis. This has allowed her to court independent voters as well, with 22% of independents listing her as their first choice in the Iowa poll.[4]
However, it is important to note that while Haley is gaining ground, she still trails behind the consistent frontrunner, former President Donald Trump. The Iowa poll shows Trump with a commanding lead at 43% among likely Republican caucusgoers.[5] Haley and DeSantis are tied for second place, but both are significantly behind Trump. Trump’s lead in Iowa is consistent with his standing in national polls, where he continues to dominate the field.[6]
It is also worth mentioning that even if DeSantis were to drop out of the race, it is unlikely that Haley would inherit his support. The Iowa poll shows that Trump is the second choice of 41% of DeSantis supporters, compared to just 27% who prefer Haley. This suggests that if DeSantis were to lose support, Trump’s lead would likely grow rather than shift to Haley.
In conclusion, the recent polls indicate a shifting landscape in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Nikki Haley is gaining ground and emerging as a serious contender, while Ron DeSantis is experiencing a decline in support. However, it is important to note that Donald Trump remains the consistent frontrunner in the field.[7] As the race continues, it will be interesting to see how these dynamics evolve and whether Haley can continue to gain momentum.
0. “Here’s Why Nikki Haley Is Gaining in Polls and Ron DeSantis Is Not” The Daily Beast, 31 Oct. 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/heres-why-nikki-haley-is-gaining-in-polls-and-ron-desantis-is-not
1. “Majority of likely GOP caucusgoers disagree with Trump’s abortion comments” Iowa Capital Dispatch, 1 Nov. 2023, https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/11/01/majority-of-likely-gop-caucusgoers-disagree-with-trumps-abortion-comments/
2. “Nikki Haley on path to edge out DeSantis after tie in Iowa 2024 poll” Washington Examiner, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/nikki-haley-path-edge-out-desantis-iowa-2024-poll
3. “Iowa Poll: Trump maintains double-digit lead, DeSantis and Haley tie for second” KCCI Des Moines, 31 Oct. 2023, https://www.kcci.com/article/iowa-poll-trump-maintains-double-digit-lead-desantis-and-haley-tie-for-second/45689743
4. “Trump camp hopes for knockout blow in Iowa, as Haley, DeSantis jockey for second” The Washington Post, 2 Nov. 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/11/02/trump-iowa-desantis-haley/
5. “Majority of Iowa Republican caucusgoers not concerned if Trump doesn’t debate: Poll” Colorado Springs Gazette, 31 Oct. 2023, https://gazette.com/news/wex/majority-of-iowa-republican-caucusgoers-not-concerned-if-trump-doesnt-debate-poll/article_b13befb7-fd46-5442-91b6-7f80b1ec29f0.html
6. “Trump Can Brush Off Legal Challenges, Defeat Biden In 2024 Election, Republican Voters In Key State Poll” Benzinga, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/10/35503747/trump-can-brush-off-legal-challenges-defeat-biden-in-2024-election-republican-voters-in-key-stat
7. “Nikki Haley: candidate capable of compromise | Not to Get Political But – The Daily Free Press” Daily Free Press, 2 Nov. 2023, https://dailyfreepress.com/2023/11/01/nikki-haley-candidate-capable-of-compromise-not-to-get-political-but/
