As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, Republican voters in Florida have begun to express their preferences between potential candidates. According to a recent survey released by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, 52% of surveyed Republican voters chose Florida Governor Ron DeSantis over former President Donald Trump, who received 27%. This survey reflects the results of other recent polls, such as Morning Consult’s poll that showed 53% of Republican voters favoring Trump and 28% favoring DeSantis.
The Morning Consult survey among potential Republican primary voters also revealed that Trump still dominates the field of potential Republican contenders, with DeSantis emerging as his leading early rival.[0] FiveThirtyEight’s polls page has been monitoring Trump’s favorability rating since 2021, and has now added polling for DeSantis, former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and former Vice President Mike Pence.[1] Haley’s favorability rating is far less divisive than Trump’s, with 38% viewing her favorably versus 31% viewing her unfavorably, giving her a +7 net favorability rating.[1] Pence, on the other hand, has a 34% favorable view and a 48% unfavorable view.[1]
In a hypothetical 2024 match-up, Fox News’ polling showed Trump leading DeSantis by 15 points among GOP primary voters. Moreover, DeSantis was found to have a 25-point lead over Trump in a Sunday survey.[2] In a head-to-head match-up, DeSantis was found to be 38 points ahead of former Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who received 6% of the vote among Virginia GOP primary voters.
A hypothetical general election contest between DeSantis and President Joe Biden showed DeSantis trailing Biden by 4 points, according to Morning Consult.[3] Pence’s 7% support trailed behind Haley’s 4% and former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s 2%.[4]
Overall, it is clear that while Trump still holds a strong lead in the polls, DeSantis is quickly becoming his leading early rival as the 2024 election draws closer. As the Florida legislative session ends in May, DeSantis is expected to announce his candidacy, which could have implications for the race.[0] It will be interesting to see how the polls change as the race progresses and the field of candidates continues to grow.
0. “Poll shows Florida Republicans want DeSantis for president over Trump” Tallahassee Democrat, 9 Mar. 2023, https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/09/poll-shows-florida-republicans-want-desantis-for-president-over-trump/69987267007
1. “Do Americans Like Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?” FiveThirtyEight, 6 Mar. 2023, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-desantis-pence-election-polls
2. “Virginia Republican poll shows Ron DeSantis with the edge over Donald Trump” Florida Politics, 6 Mar. 2023, https://floridapolitics.com/archives/592951-virginia-republican-poll-shows-ron-desantis-with-the-edge-over-donald-trump/
3. “Morning Consult Poll: Trump Well Ahead of DeSantis” Newsmax, 7 Mar. 2023, https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/morning-consult-polls-2024/2023/03/07/id/1111388/
4. “Trump Vs. DeSantis: Latest Poll Shows Biggest Lead So Far Among GOP Voters, With One Candidate Ahead By 2” Benzinga, 8 Mar. 2023, https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/03/31259786/trump-vs-desantis-latest-poll-shows-biggest-lead-so-far-among-gop-voters-with-one-candidate-ahea
