The race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is heating up, with Nikki Haley emerging as a potential contender. However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that Haley may face an uphill battle in securing the nomination.
Polling data indicates that Haley is not likely to attract many voters who were previously supporting the current front-runner, Ron DeSantis.[0] In fact, a significant number of DeSantis supporters prefer former President Donald Trump as their second choice. This means that as Haley’s popularity grows, so does Trump’s, and only one of them has the level of support needed to secure victory.[1]
While Haley could potentially win if Trump’s campaign were to suffer a catastrophe, as some of his rivals have been hoping for, the data suggests that this is unlikely.[1] A recent poll found that if Trump were not running, 36% of Republicans would back DeSantis, while Haley would only receive 12% support. Additionally, DeSantis is the most popular second choice among voters, while Haley is tied for third place.
Haley’s problem is similar in Iowa, where DeSantis is more likely to attract Trump supporters.[2] While 19% of those who list Haley as their second choice are also backing Trump, 36% of DeSantis’s second-choice voters are. However, 60% of Trump backers say they would consider voting for Haley, making their votes potentially up for grabs.[2]
In terms of support within their own campaigns, DeSantis is the second choice of 34% of Haley’s supporters, and another 33% choose other candidates who may not be in the race for much longer. If given a choice between Trump and DeSantis, these voters would likely lean towards DeSantis.
Despite these challenges, Haley has seen some improvement in her poll numbers.[3] She has risen to third place in national polling and has jumped ahead of DeSantis in surveys of New Hampshire and South Carolina. In her home state of South Carolina, she is in second place behind Trump, with 51% support among Republican primary voters.[3]
Haley’s strong performances in the first two primary debates have helped boost her popularity, especially among independents.[4] Many anti-Trump Republicans see her as a viable alternative who can appeal to a broader base of voters. However, her rise in the polls has also invited more scrutiny, and her policy positions are being closely examined.
In recent weeks, Haley has emphasized her support for Israel, a topic she has been vocal about during her time as Trump’s UN ambassador.[5] She has defended the administration’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocate the US embassy there.[6] This stance has drawn praise from some Republicans but may also face criticism from others.
As the primary race continues, Haley and DeSantis have been engaging in policy feuds and attacking each other’s records.[6] The upcoming debate on November 8 will be a critical moment for both candidates as they seek to distinguish themselves as the best alternative to Trump.
Overall, while Haley’s rise in the polls has generated excitement among some anti-Trump Republicans, she still faces significant challenges in securing the nomination. DeSantis remains a formidable opponent, and Trump’s continued popularity among the party base could make it difficult for Haley to gain traction. However, with strong debate performances and a focus on issues like Israel, she may still have a chance to appeal to a broader range of voters and emerge as a serious contender.
0. “Nikki Haley doesn’t have a real path to win the nomination” Washington Examiner, 2 Nov. 2023, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/nikki-haley-doesnt-have-a-real-path-to-win-the-nomination
1. “Nikki Haley’s Rise Will Clinch Donald Trump’s Victory” New York Magazine, 2 Nov. 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/11/nikki-haley-rise-clinch-donald-trump-victory.html
2. “Nikki Haley’s path to victory vs. Trump – The Washington Post” The Washington Post, 1 Nov. 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/01/nikki-haleys-twisty-path-victory/
3. “Haley, DeSantis spar for second as 2024 primary closes in” The Hill, 22 Oct. 2023, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4267759-haley-desantis-spar-for-second-as-2024-primary-closes-in
4. “DeSantis and Haley split over Palestinian refugees as rivalry to be top Trump alternative intensifies” CNN, 18 Oct. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/18/politics/desantis-haley-rivalry/index.html
5. “As Haley and DeSantis spar over Israel and Gaza refugees, looking back at her record on world stage” ABC News, 20 Oct. 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-desantis-spar-israel-gaza-refugees-back-record/story?id=103905456
6. “Nikki Haley’s unexpected rise from ‘scrappy’ underdog to Trump’s closest rival” The Guardian US, 4 Nov. 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/04/nikki-haley-republican-presidential-primary-trump
