With the Republican presidential primary just around the corner, the race for the nomination is heating up. The Iowa caucuses are set to take place on Monday, Jan. 15, followed by the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Jan. 23.[0] These early voting states will provide crucial data on which candidates are resonating with Republican voters and could potentially reshape the race.
One of the main questions on everyone’s mind is whether former President Donald Trump will be able to secure the GOP nomination once again.[1] Despite concerns about his electability, polls show Trump continuing to hold substantial leads against his top Republican rivals in Iowa and other early-voting states.[2] A recent FOX Business poll indicated Trump with 52% support, far ahead of his closest rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 18% and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 16%.[2]
However, the polls also suggest that there is still room for surprises. While Trump maintains a commanding lead in Iowa, an upset win by Haley, who has recently moved within striking distance of him, is not out of the question. In New Hampshire, Trump’s lead is somewhat less commanding, with Haley trailing behind but within reach. These early contests could potentially catapult a candidate into serious contention or lead to others dropping out of the race.[1]
The upcoming Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary will provide much-needed clarity in a race that has so far been mostly uneventful. Candidates will have their first opportunity to directly face voters and showcase their platforms and vision for the country.[3] The results of these contests will offer valuable insight into the preferences of Republican voters and could significantly reshape the field of candidates.
To prepare for these crucial events, NBC News and The Des Moines Register have partnered to conduct in-depth interviews with three Republican presidential candidates: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy. These interviews aim to delve into the candidates’ stances on key issues and provide voters with a deeper understanding of their platforms. The interviews will air across NBC News platforms and be featured in The Des Moines Register throughout the week leading up to the caucuses.[4]
As the race intensifies, candidates are ramping up their campaign efforts in Iowa. Ad spending in the state has reached almost $105 million, with campaigns focusing their resources on reaching voters through TV ads and grassroots operations.[5] Nikki Haley, in particular, has seen a surge in ad spending and has climbed to become a legitimate second-place contender. Her goal is to emerge as the most viable alternative to Trump, setting her up for a stronger finish in New Hampshire and the subsequent South Carolina primary.[5]
While the race is currently dominated by Trump, these early contests have the potential to change the dynamics of the race. Candidates like DeSantis and Haley are working hard to gain traction and present themselves as viable alternatives to the former president.[1] The next presidential debate in Des Moines will feature only Trump, DeSantis, and Haley, indicating that these three candidates have qualified based on their polling numbers.[6] This limited field on the debate stage will provide an opportunity for candidates to distinguish themselves and make their case to Iowa voters.[1]
Overall, the upcoming Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary will be crucial milestones in the Republican presidential primary. They will provide valuable insights into the preferences of Republican voters and could significantly shape the trajectory of the race.[7] As candidates make their final pitches to caucus-goers, the race is set to intensify, and the field of contenders may see significant changes. With less than two weeks to go, all eyes are on Iowa and New Hampshire as the Republican presidential primary kicks into high gear.
0. “It’s crunch time in Iowa and New Hampshire” ABC News, 2 Jan. 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/538/crunch-time-iowa-new-hampshire/story?id=105949926
1. “The Iowa caucuses are less than 2 weeks away. Here’s what the polls are saying.” WQAD Moline, 3 Jan. 2024, https://www.wqad.com/article/news/politics/elections/iowa-caucuses-two-weeks-away-current-polls/526-d4ea1629-5022-4b27-bfee-32ad7a933323
2. “Iowa GOP chair predicts ‘potential for a record turnout’ in 2024 caucuses as new voters ‘surge'” Fox News, 29 Dec. 2023, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iowa-gop-chair-predicts-caucus-turnout-well-above-100000-potential-record-turnout
3. “Iowa Caucuses 2024: Where Trump, DeSantis Stand Two Weeks Before Vote” Newsweek, 1 Jan. 2024, https://www.newsweek.com/iowa-caucus-polls-donald-trump-ron-desantis-1856936
4. “NBC News to Moderate Series of Republican Candidate Interviews Ahead of Iowa Caucus” Adweek, 2 Jan. 2024, https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/nbc-news-to-moderate-series-of-republican-candidate-interviews-ahead-of-iowa-caucus/544042/
5. “Haley at Center of Costliest Ad War in Iowa Caucus History” TIME, 3 Jan. 2024, https://time.com/6551836/nikki-haley-fundraising-ads-iowa
6. “All Eyes on Iowa” The American Conservative, 2 Jan. 2024, https://www.theamericanconservative.com/all-eyes-on-iowa/
7. “NBC News to moderate ‘Closing Arguments: Iowa’ with the Des Moines Register in final days before Iowa Caucus” Editor And Publisher Magazine, 3 Jan. 2024, https://www.editorandpublisher.com/stories/nbc-news-to-moderate-closing-arguments-iowa-with-the-des-moines-register-in-final-days-before,247427
