Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once seen as a formidable challenger to former President Donald Trump, has experienced a decline in popularity in the latest Republican Party polls in New Hampshire.[0] In the most recent UNH Survey Center poll, DeSantis has fallen to fifth place, trailing behind Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Chris Christie.[1] This decline has not translated into increased support for Trump, as his backing among Granite State Republicans remains below 40 percent.[2]
The poll reveals that DeSantis is now behind Ramaswamy with 13% support, Haley with 12%, and Christie with 11%.[3] While this decline may be disappointing for DeSantis, he is still ahead of Senator Tim Scott, who has 6% support.[3] Other candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, are polling at around 2%.[4]
DeSantis’ decline in the polls can be attributed to a drop in support among moderates, which has fallen from 26% in July to just 6% currently.[5] He has also lost eight points among conservatives.[5] On the other hand, Ramaswamy’s increase in support is concentrated among non-registered Republicans and younger likely voters.[6] Haley’s increase, on the other hand, is more pronounced among those with higher levels of education and moderates.[6]
Despite DeSantis’ decline in New Hampshire, Trump continues to be the preferred choice of 39% of likely GOP primary voters in the state.[7] However, this number falls slightly behind his national performance, where he consistently secures majority support in Republican primary polling.[4] The poll also indicates that a significant number of voters in New Hampshire are still undecided, with 38% saying they are leaning toward a candidate and 24% still trying to decide.
It is worth noting that these poll results are specific to the state of New Hampshire and may not reflect the overall sentiment within the Republican Party. However, they do highlight the shifting dynamics within the GOP primary field, with Ramaswamy emerging as a rising candidate and DeSantis losing ground.
It is also interesting to observe the difference in priorities between Trump supporters and those backing other candidates.[8] Trump supporters prioritize a candidate who will fight for conservative values, even if they are unpopular, and who is not a typical politician.[8] On the other hand, those not supporting Trump place more importance on a candidate’s ability to attract support from outside the party and being respectful to others.[8]
DeSantis’ decline in New Hampshire and Trump’s strong lead in the state raise questions about the former president’s performance in early primary states. While Trump enjoys significant support nationally, his numbers tend to be lower in states where voters are paying more attention. This could be a factor to consider as the 2024 Republican primary race unfolds.[3]
Overall, the latest poll results in New Hampshire showcase the fluidity of the GOP primary race and the potential for shifts in support among candidates. While DeSantis may have slipped in the rankings, the race is far from over, and candidates like Ramaswamy and Haley are making gains in the state. As the primary season approaches, it will be interesting to see how these dynamics evolve and whether any candidate can challenge Trump’s frontrunner status.
0. “Indian-Americans Ramaswamy, Haley Surpass DeSantis To Emerge As Second And Third Most Popular Choices For Republican Ticket” Swarajya, 21 Sep. 2023, https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/indian-americans-ramaswamy-haley-surpass-desantis-to-emerge-as-second-and-third-most-popular-choices-for-republican-ticket
1. “Trump keeps lead in New Hampshire – while Ron DeSantis slips to FIFTH: Florida governor slips behind Vivek Ram” Daily Mail, 20 Sep. 2023, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12542301/Trump-keeps-lead-New-Hampshire-Ron-DeSantis-slips-FIFTH-Florida-governor-slips-Vivek-Ramaswamy-Nikki-Haley-Chris-Christie-alarming-poll-crucial-primary-state.html
2. “DeSantis Drops to Fifth in New UNH Survey, Trump Falls Below 40 Percent” NH Journal, 21 Sep. 2023, https://nhjournal.com/desantis-drops-to-fifth-in-new-unh-survey-trump-falls-below-40-percent/
3. “Ouch! The hits keep coming for Ron “Don’t Say Gay” DeSantis” Queerty, 21 Sep. 2023, https://www.queerty.com/super-bad-news-for-ron-dont-say-gay-desantis-20230921
4. “Donald Trump Secures Top Spot In New Hampshire, GOP Challengers Fight For Second: Poll” Benzinga, 21 Sep. 2023, https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/09/34777842/donald-trump-secures-top-spot-in-new-hampshire-gop-challengers-fight-for-second-poll
5. “Vivek Ramaswamy, The Most Favoured Republican Presidential Candidate After Trump” The Quint, 21 Sep. 2023, https://www.thequint.com/news/world/vivek-ramaswamy-the-most-favoured-republican-presidential-candidate-after-trump
6. “Vivek Ramaswamy Now 2nd In Race For US President Candidate Pick, Trump 1st” NDTV, 21 Sep. 2023, https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/trump-rival-desantis-falls-behind-vivek-ramaswamy-nikki-haley-in-new-hampshire-poll-4409084
7. “Trump leads GOP presidential race, Ramaswamy in second place” The Statesman, 21 Sep. 2023, https://www.thestatesman.com/world/trump-leads-gop-presidential-race-ramaswamy-in-second-place-1503224211.html
8. “World News” LatestLY, 21 Sep. 2023, https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-opinion-polls-trump-dominates-race-in-new-hampshire-ramaswamy-chasing-from-behind-with-3-others-5428513.html
