In the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, former President Donald Trump is maintaining a dominant lead over his competitors, according to a recent poll conducted in Iowa.[0] The poll, conducted by The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom, surveyed likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa and found that 42% of respondents chose Trump as their first choice out of the 14 GOP candidates.[1] Trump’s closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, received 19% of the vote, while South Carolina Senator Tim Scott came in third with 9%.[2]
The poll also revealed that a majority of likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa do not believe that Trump has committed any serious crimes, despite facing his fourth criminal indictment.[3] The survey showed that 63% of respondents support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses, compared to 61% who said the same for DeSantis.[4] However, 52% of respondents said their minds were not made up and that they could be persuaded to support another candidate.[0]
The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points and was conducted through telephone interviews with 406 registered voters in Iowa who said they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.[5] The survey was conducted from August 13-17, 2023.[3]
The results of the poll highlight the importance of the Iowa caucus in the GOP nominating process.[6] In the past three contested GOP nomination fights, Iowa Republicans have rejected the national front-runner in favor of an alternative candidate who relied on support from the state’s bloc of evangelical Christian conservatives.[7] Trump’s strong lead in Iowa suggests that he remains the favorite for the nomination, but the poll also indicates that there is still room for other candidates to make an impact.[7]
Among the second-choice candidates in the poll, DeSantis was the top pick with 20% of respondents choosing him as their second choice, followed by Scott with 15% and Ramaswamy with 12%.[8] The survey also showed that Trump’s lead over DeSantis increased after his most recent indictment in Fulton County.[9]
Overall, the poll suggests that the race for the GOP nomination may be closer than it initially appears. While Trump maintains a significant lead, there is still a sizable portion of likely caucus-goers who are open to changing their minds and supporting another candidate.[8] The results also demonstrate the importance of appealing to non-evangelical voters, as the candidate who has won the most support among non-evangelicals in past Iowa caucuses has gone on to win the GOP nomination in all but one contested race since 1996.
The Iowa caucus is scheduled for January 15, 2024, and will play a crucial role in determining the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election. As the race heats up, candidates will need to make their case to Iowa voters and differentiate themselves from their competitors in order to secure their support. With Trump maintaining a dominant lead, the other candidates will need to find a way to gain momentum and convince voters that they are the best choice to represent the Republican Party in the general election.
0. “Iowa caucus-goers love Trump even after he attacked their governor” Business Insider, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-caucuses-republicans-views-polling-reynolds-desantis-2024-2023-8
1. “Trump dominates Iowa despite feud with governor, but sliver of hope for DeSantis: Poll” Washington Examiner, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-lead-iowans-feud-governor-poll
2. “Trump to skip first Republican debate as poll shows lead over rivals grew after Georgia indictment – live” The Guardian US, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/aug/21/trump-republican-debate-georgia-biden-hawaii-fires-politics-live-updates
3. “Iowa Poll: Most likely GOP caucusgoers don’t believe Trump has committed serious crimes” Des Moines Register, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/08/21/do-republican-caucusgoers-think-trump-committed-serious-crimes-iowa-poll-2024-election-indictments/70613835007/
4. “Trump keeps dominant lead over 2024 GOP candidates, Iowa poll finds” POLITICO, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/21/iowa-republican-poll-trump-00112050
5. “Register caucus poll shows ‘hands off’ approach to Trump isn’t working” Iowa Capital Dispatch, 21 Aug. 2023, https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/08/21/register-caucus-poll-shows-hands-off-approach-to-trump-isnt-working/
6. “Trump’s Lead Among Iowa GOP Voters Grew After Georgia Indictment” Forbes, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/08/21/trumps-lead-among-iowa-gop-voters-grew-after-georgia-indictment/
7. “Does Iowa Matter To Republican Candidates?” The Atlantic, 20 Aug. 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/08/iowa-caucus-republican-candidates/675053
8. “Trump Boasts Massive Lead in New Iowa Poll; Most Caucus-Goers Don’t Believe He’s Committed Serious Crimes” National Review, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trump-boasts-massive-lead-in-new-iowa-poll-most-caucus-goers-dont-believe-hes-committed-serious-crimes/
9. “Iowa poll: Trump challengers face huge climb to stop him in first GOP contest” NBC News, 21 Aug. 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/iowa-poll-trump-challengers-face-huge-climb-stop-first-gop-contest-rcna100886
