In the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, it is clear that former President Donald Trump continues to hold a strong lead in Iowa.[0] However, there have been some shifts in the race, with Nikki Haley rising to tie with Ron DeSantis for second place in the GOP field.[1]
According to the poll, Trump has a commanding 27-point lead in Iowa, although this is lower than his lead in other states and national polls.[2] The poll also shows that Haley’s support has grown significantly, putting her in a tie with DeSantis for second place.[1] This is Haley’s highest-ever showing in an Iowa poll, and her support has increased by ten percentage points since the last survey in August.[3]
While Trump and DeSantis still have the same share of poll respondents considering them as an option, with 67% of likely Republican caucusgoers ranking them as their first or second choice, Haley has a smaller footprint with 54% of likely GOP caucusgoers considering her for the 2024 presidential nomination.[4] Other candidates, such as Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie, also received support, but at lower percentages.[5]
Interestingly, when asked about their second choice, 27% of voters rated DeSantis as their second choice, making him the top choice in this metric.[4] Another 25% said they’re considering DeSantis, bringing the total percentage of voters weighing a vote for DeSantis to 67%.[6] Haley came in third in this metric, with 34% of her supporters saying DeSantis is their second choice.[6]
The poll also revealed that Trump’s supporters have a stronger conviction in their choice, with 63% saying their minds are made up and only 37% saying they could be persuaded to back another candidate.[2] In comparison, only about a third of DeSantis’ and Haley’s backers say the same.[7]
Despite his ongoing legal battles, the majority of likely Republican caucusgoers (65%) believe that Trump can win a general election against President Joe Biden.[8] Only 32% said it would be nearly impossible for him to beat Biden.
It’s important to note that the poll was conducted before former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign.[8] Pence received 2% support in the poll, and his supporters’ second-choice candidates were redistributed.[9]
Overall, J. Ann Selzer, the Iowa pollster who conducted the survey, described it as a good poll for Donald Trump.[10] She noted that despite everything that has happened between the last poll and now, Trump remains the dominant player in the field, and his standing has actually improved since August.
The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for January 15, 2024, making Iowa Republicans the first to vote in the 2024 primary calendar.[9] It will be interesting to see how the race develops in the coming months and whether any candidates can challenge Trump’s lead in Iowa.
0. “Trump holds lead in Iowa poll while Haley ties DeSantis for second” POLITICO, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/30/trump-iowa-poll-haley-00124197
1. “New Poll Shows Nikki Haley Surging in Key Early State” The Stream, 30 Oct. 2023, https://stream.org/new-poll-shows-nikki-haley-surging-in-key-early-state
2. “The results that REALLY matter in the Iowa poll: Trump supporters are ‘locked in’ with backing the ex-Presiden” Daily Mail, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12689585/The-results-REALLY-matter-Iowa-poll-Trump-supporters-locked-backing-ex-President-DeSantis-voters-splinter-dropped-out.html
3. “Nikki Haley Surges In Iowa, Gets On The Ballot In South Carolina” FITSNews, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.fitsnews.com/2023/10/30/nikki-haley-surges-in-iowa-gets-on-the-ballot-in-south-carolina
4. “Iowa poll shows Haley has no path to nomination” Washington Examiner, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iowa-poll-shows-haley-has-no-path-to-nomination
5. “Trump Can Brush Off Legal Challenges, Defeat Biden In 2024 Election, Republican Voters In Key State Poll” Benzinga, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/10/35503747/trump-can-brush-off-legal-challenges-defeat-biden-in-2024-election-republican-voters-in-key-stat
6. “Poll: Ron DeSantis fades into second place tie in Iowa, 27 points behind Donald Trump” Florida Politics, 30 Oct. 2023, https://floridapolitics.com/archives/641915-poll-ron-desantis-fades-into-second-place-tie-in-iowa-27-points-behind-donald-trump/
7. “New Iowa poll shows Trump ahead among most committed and enthusiastic Republicans” NBC News, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/new-iowa-poll-shows-trump-ahead-committed-enthusiastic-republicans-rcna122726
8. “Trump’s lead grows in new Iowa Poll as Haley catches up to DeSantis” Iowa Capital Dispatch, 30 Oct. 2023, https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/10/30/trumps-lead-grows-in-new-iowa-poll-as-haley-catches-up-to-desantis/
9. “Iowa poll: Nikki Haley surges, DeSantis freezes” Axios, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.axios.com/2023/10/30/iowa-caucus-poll-haley-desantis-trump
10. “New Poll Shows Where Trump Stands Months Ahead Of Iowa Caucus” The Steve Harvey Morning Show, 30 Oct. 2023, https://www.steveharveyfm.com/content/2023-10-30-new-poll-shows-where-trump-stands-months-ahead-of-iowa-caucus/
