2024 White House Race: Biden Holds Lead Against Republican Candidates, But Approval Ratings Drop

In the race for the White House, President Joe Biden currently holds a lead against each Republican candidate, with his support ranging between 45 percent and 49 percent. However, a recent Fox News poll revealed that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a 2-point edge over Biden.[0] Despite this, Biden is determined to win over voters in Florida, even though a majority currently disapprove of his handling of the presidency.[1] Overall, 54% of voters in the state disapprove of Biden’s job performance, while 42% approve. Among Democrats, 89% approve of his work, but the majority of independents (58%) and Republicans (97%) disapprove.[1]

Interestingly, among voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and the Republican candidate, Trump leads by a two-to-one margin. About 19% of those surveyed remain undecided, but nearly two-thirds of voters do not want Biden to be president again.[2] Similarly, six in 10 voters feel the same about Trump.[3] It seems that for many Biden supporters, their choice is largely motivated by opposition to Trump rather than a strong show of support for Biden.[1] About 55% say their ballot would be more of a vote against Trump, while 44% say it would be more in support of Biden.[1] In contrast, 63% of Trump supporters say their vote is mostly a show of support for the former president.[1]

In Pennsylvania, a crucial state for the upcoming election, Biden and Trump are nearly tied, according to a poll by Quinnipiac University. Trump leads with 47% support among registered voters, while Biden trails closely behind with 45% support. Surveys conducted by Emerson College Polling also show Trump leading Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of which are expected to play a significant role in determining the outcome of the election.[4] Trump maintains a substantial nine-point lead in Pennsylvania and a slim two-point lead in Wisconsin.

In Virginia, another potential battleground state, Biden is tied with Trump in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election rematch, according to a survey by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. The Quinnipiac University poll also shows Trump leading Biden by 47% to 45% in a hypothetical 2024 election.

It is worth noting that Biden’s approval ratings have fluctuated throughout his presidency. In September, his approval rating ranged from 41% to 42%, with the lowest being 38% in July 2022 and the highest being 55% in May 2021. However, at the end of September, polling averages showed his approval at 41%, with 55% of voters disapproving of his performance.

Moreover, Biden’s approval ratings have dropped further in October. A recent poll reported that his approval rating is now at 36%, a 5-point decrease from September. On the economic front, 56% of voters disapprove of Biden’s economic policies, while only 24% approve.

In terms of voter discontent, the polls reveal that a majority believe there is a disconnect between the leading presidential candidates and everyday Americans.[5] Sixty-four percent of voters feel that Biden is out of touch, while 59% feel the same way about Trump. Interestingly, more Democrats think Biden is out of touch compared to Republicans’ perception of Trump. Additionally, more independents feel that Biden is detached compared to Trump.

When it comes to third-party candidates, there is significant interest among voters who dislike both Biden and Trump.[3] However, even with the presence of third-party candidates, a Biden-Trump race remains competitive.[3] Both candidates have relatively high popularity within their parties, with about three-quarters of Democrats and Republican-leaning independents satisfied with their respective candidates.[6]

In terms of support among different racial and ethnic groups, a survey conducted in Pennsylvania shows that Black and Latino voters overwhelmingly support Biden against Trump.[7] The poll indicates that Biden would receive 81% of the Latino vote compared to Trump’s 19%.[2] This support for Biden is even higher than what exit polls showed in 2020, with Biden winning 69% of the Latino vote and Trump winning 27%.

Trump remains the most popular GOP primary candidate, garnering 59% support among Republican primary voters.[8] DeSantis is a distant second with 13% support, while other candidates such as Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott receive varying levels of support.

Overall, the polls indicate that the race for the White House in 2024 is highly competitive. Biden holds a narrow lead over most Republican candidates, with Trump being the exception. However, the polls also reveal that Biden’s approval ratings have dropped, and a significant number of voters disapprove of his job performance. The upcoming election will certainly be closely watched as both parties vie for victory.[4]

0. “Biden edges out Trump in Fox News poll, loses to DeSantis or Haley” The Hill, 12 Oct. 2023, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4251779-biden-trump-desantis-haley-2024-poll-fox/

1. “CNN Poll: Biden and Trump are in a dead heat in potential Nevada rematch” CNN, 10 Oct. 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/politics/cnn-poll-nevada/index.html

2. “Trump, Biden Tied In National Poll Again: Did Skipping Republican Debate Help Former President?” Benzinga, 3 Oct. 2023, https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/23/10/35074783/trump-biden-tied-in-national-poll-again-did-skipping-republican-debate-help-former-president

3. “Marist Poll shows Biden and Trump evenly matched in head-to-head contest” Mid Hudson News Website, 5 Oct. 2023, https://midhudsonnews.com/2023/10/05/marist-poll-shows-biden-and-trump-evenly-matched-in-head-to-head-contest/

4. “Donald Trump Gets Great News in Two Key Swing States” Newsweek, 12 Oct. 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/trump-leading-biden-swing-states-pennsylvania-wisconsin-1834267

5. “Fox News Poll: Support for Haley doubles in GOP primary, she tops Biden by four” Fox News, 11 Oct. 2023, https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-haley-doubles-gop-primary-biden

6. “Americans aren’t thrilled with Biden or Trump but a third party isn’t resonating” NPR, 4 Oct. 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/10/04/1203296799/trump-voters-more-excited-than-biden-2024-election

7. “Fox Hosts React To New Poll Showing Pennsylvania Is a Tight Race For Trump and Biden: ‘It’s Essentially Tied’” Mediaite, 5 Oct. 2023, https://www.mediaite.com/tv/fox-hosts-react-to-new-poll-showing-pennsylvania-is-a-tight-race-for-trump-and-biden-its-essentially-tied/

8. “Biden leads Trump in 2024 popular vote — trails Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis: poll” New York Post , 12 Oct. 2023, https://nypost.com/2023/10/12/donald-trump-trails-joe-biden-while-nikki-haley-and-ron-desantis-best-him-poll

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