New Poll Shows Trump and Biden Tied in Hypothetical 2024 Rematch, with Independent Voters Potentially Posing Trouble for Biden

A new poll released this month shows that former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are tied in a hypothetical rematch for the 2024 presidential election.[0] The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll found that 45 percent of respondents would vote for Trump in a head-to-head matchup with Biden, while 39 percent would vote for Biden and 15 percent were undecided. However, the poll also showed that only 77 percent of Democrats would support Biden, while 86 percent of Republicans would back Trump.

The poll also examined hypothetical primary matchups, including one between Biden and Maryland Governor Wes Moore.[1] Among white Democrats, Biden held a 28-point lead over Moore, while among Black Democrats, Moore held a 12-point advantage over the incumbent president.[1]

The poll found that independent voters in Maryland have not yet coalesced behind Biden, with the president’s showing in Maryland with independent voters portending potential trouble nationally.[2] However, DeSantis led Biden among independents in a hypothetical matchup, with 47 percent of independents picking DeSantis compared to 39 percent for Biden.[3]

The poll’s margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points and was conducted from June 14 to 15.

Another poll conducted by EPIC-MRA in Michigan found that likely Michigan voters nearly equally disapprove of both Biden and Trump, with 52 percent of voters reporting an unfavorable view of each candidate.[4] The poll’s margin of error was also 4 percent.

Despite the polling results, there is still a lot of time before the 2024 presidential election, and much could change between now and then. Biden currently faces two Democratic challengers, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, while the GOP field is more crowded, with 11 Republicans attempting to dethrone Trump as the leader of their party.[0]

0. “Donald Trump Defeats Joe Biden in Post-Indictment Poll” Newsweek, 17 Jun. 2023,

1. “Gonzales Poll: More than half of Maryland voters re-elect President Biden over Trump” WBAL Radio, 14 Jun. 2023,

2. “Poll: Biden’s independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore” Florida Phoenix, 14 Jun. 2023,

3. “Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve” NPI’s Cascadia Advocate, 12 Jun. 2023,

4. “Majority of Michigan voters disapprove of Joe Biden and Donald Trump: Poll” Washington Examiner, 16 Jun. 2023,

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