Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to a new poll by The Wall Street Journal.[0] The poll surveyed likely GOP voters and found that Trump had a commanding lead of 53% support, compared to DeSantis’ 24%.[1] The poll also showed that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was in third place with just 5% support, while all other candidates polled at 3% or below.[2] The results mark a significant shift from a December poll that had DeSantis leading Trump by 14 points.[2]
The poll results come as DeSantis has struggled to establish a national standing that can compete with Trump’s influence. After his historic win in the midterm elections, many Republicans began looking to DeSantis as the best choice to replace Trump as their party’s nominee.[3] However, recent polling suggests that Trump is still the clear frontrunner among potential Republican candidates.
The same poll found that in Arizona, DeSantis led Biden 48% to 42%, while Trump trailed the Democratic leader 44% to 45%. In Pennsylvania, DeSantis led Biden 45% to 42%, while Biden led Trump 46% to 42%. When Republicans were provided with a list of potential presidential candidates and asked who they would vote for, Trump was still the clear winner, with 49.3% support compared to just 26.2% for DeSantis.[4]
However, the poll also found that even though DeSantis trails Trump in the polls, voters still acknowledge that the Florida governor would have a better chance of defeating Biden in the general election.[5] About 41% say DeSantis would be a stronger opponent compared to just 31% who say the same for Trump.[3]
Among Hispanic voters, DeSantis’s relative strength against Biden might prove to be greater.[6] In March polls, DeSantis was losing Hispanics by 7 points to Biden compared with Trump’s deficit of 25 points – a difference of 18 points.[6] Moreover, in the 2022 gubernatorial election, DeSantis carried the Hispanic vote in Florida by 13 points, while Biden won the Hispanic vote in the state by just 9 points.[6]
For now, most Republican voters (52%) still think Trump “has the best chance of winning the 2024 general election,” versus 34% for DeSantis.[7] However, only a fortnight ago, those percentages stood at 55% and 29% correspondingly.[7] The Florida governor has yet to launch his widely expected candidacy, and reports suggest he will announce later this spring.[7] To secure the nomination, DeSantis needs to convince GOP primary voters that he has a better shot against Biden than Trump – with as much help from the courts as he can get.[7]
However, Trump’s unfavorable rating is 56% in Pennsylvania and 58% in Arizona, and 56% of Pennsylvania voters and 55% of Arizona voters say they are not likely to vote for Trump in a general election.[8] Meanwhile, 47% said they approved of Trump “being indicted for falsifying business records to conceal a hush money payment to a porn star,” a 5 percentage point increase from 42% over the last two weeks.[9]
In conclusion, while Trump has retaken the lead in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, DeSantis still has a chance to catch up. The Florida governor has yet to officially announce his candidacy, and he still has time to convince GOP primary voters that he is the better candidate to take on Biden in the general election. However, with Trump’s influence and strong support among Republican voters, DeSantis will need to pull out all the stops to secure the nomination.
0. “WSJ News Exclusive | Trump Leads DeSantis in Test of GOP Presidential Field, WSJ Poll Finds” The Wall Street Journal, 21 Apr. 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-tops-ron-desantis-in-test-of-gop-presidential-field-wsj-poll-finds-88c84663
1. “Trump catapults to top of GOP presidential primary race, overturning DeSantis’ 14-point lead: poll” Fox News, 21 Apr. 2023, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-catapults-top-gop-presidential-primary-race-overturning-desantis-14-point-lead-poll
2. “Trump Once Again Trounces DeSantis in New WSJ Poll” The Daily Beast, 21 Apr. 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-once-again-trounces-ron-desantis-in-new-wall-street-journal-poll
3. “Trump holds commanding lead despite voters saying DeSantis has better chance to beat Biden” Washington Examiner, 21 Apr. 2023, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-holds-commanding-lead-desantis-better-chance-beat-biden
4. “Is Donald Trump losing his grip? • Inside Story” Inside Story, 20 Apr. 2023, https://insidestory.org.au/is-donald-trump-losing-his-grip/
5. “GOP support for Trump slips in new poll” The Hill, 18 Apr. 2023, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3956709-gop-support-for-trump-slips-in-new-poll/
6. “Opinion | What Ron DeSantis has that Donald Trump lacks” The Washington Post, 18 Apr. 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/18/desantis-trump-biden-polls/
7. “Poll: Trump’s big post-indictment bounce is fading fast” Yahoo News, 18 Apr. 2023, https://news.yahoo.com/poll-trumps-big-post-indictment-bounce-is-fading-fast-183753992.html
8. “New poll: DeSantis — not Trump — leads Biden in battleground states” Miami Herald, 17 Apr. 2023, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article274385065.html
9. “Trump’s Lead over DeSantis Shrinks by Ten Points after Initial Post-Indictment Surge: Poll” AOL, 18 Apr. 2023, https://www.aol.com/news/trump-lead-over-desantis-shrinks-013329772.html
